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Institutionalising democracy in Iraq - -

By Amir Taheri

INSTITUTIONALISING DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ
by Amir Taheri
Gulf Daily News
January 28, 2005

Designed to give Iraq a new democratic framework at local, provincial, and national levels, Sunday's elections are also set to confirm the emergence of a new leadership in the country.

This emerging leadership would have to develop a national consensus on a new government, a permanent constitution, and the status of the US-led forces present in Iraq.

It would also have to face and ultimately defeat determined enemies both at home and abroad: the remnants of Saddamism, diehard Islamists, and some of Iraq's neighbours that, for different reasons, do not wish it to become a working democracy.

While some members of the new leadership are former exiles who returned home after liberation, others are men and women who spent a good part of their lives under Saddam's tyranny.

The Kurds, some 20 per cent of the total population, represent the only community in Iraq to be still led by figures who were around three decades ago.

Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and Jalal Talabani who heads the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, are likely to stay under the limelight until a new generation of Kurdish politicians takes shape.

Most of the newcomers in the emerging leadership will be Shiites who, for the first time since 1921 when Iraq came into being as a state, are mobilised to exercise their rights as a majority of the country's population.

One key Shiite political figure is Eyad Allawi, the interim Prime Minister, who is likely to emerge at the head of the fourth largest group in the forthcoming National Assembly.

Although he would not have the parliamentary support needed to retain his current position, Allawi may, nevertheless, emerge as a compromise candidate for premiership until the end of this year.

Another well-known Shiite political figure is Ahmad Chalabi, once the darling of the Pentagon and now a bete-noire of Washington, who is certain to secure a seat in the new assembly. Chalabi does not have the support needed to get to the top of Iraqi politics in the foreseeable future.

The emerging Shiite political leadership, however, includes a number of other potentially more important players.

These include Mohammad Hussain Shahrestani, who was once head of Saddam's nuclear project but fled into exile when the despot decided to develop nuclear weapons.

Having returned home last year after two decades of exile Shahrestani quickly established himself as one of the closest political aides of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the primus inter pares of Shiite clerics.

In his 50s, Shahrestani is expected to be the leading Shiite candidate for the post of Prime Minister.

Another Shiite political figure likely to be strengthened by the elections is Abdulaziz Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCRI).

His group is expected to emerge as the second biggest Shiite bloc in the future parliament. Aged 52, he is tipped to become Speaker of the parliament.

A third Shiite player is Ebrahim Al Jaafari, leader of the main faction of the Ad Da'awa (The Call) Party, the largest Shiite political organisation.

He could emerge as the candidate of the Shiite bloc for the Presidency of the Republic. A new generation of Shiite technocrats regard Adel Abdul Mahdi, a member of the Interim Government, as their standard-bearer. A French-educated economist, Mahdi is a contender for the key post of Minister of Finance.

With the exception of Allawi who has entered the election as a secular politician, all other new Shiite leaders mentioned above have close ties with the clerical elite.

But there are other Shiite leaders who have not only distanced themselves from the clerics but have openly campaigned for a clearly secular system of government.

The most notable among these is Hamid Majid Moussa, leader of the Iraqi Communist Party and head of the list Iraqi People's Alliance in the election.

Key player

Despite predictions that the Arab Sunnis, some 15 per cent of the total population, will boycott the elections and reject the democratic system, the leadership emerging in Baghdad includes many prominent Sunnis.

Adnan Pachachi, the grand old man of Iraqi diplomacy, now aged 82, is likely to remain a key player at least in the projected period of transition.

But possibly the most effective leader of the Arab Sunnis is likely to be Gazi Al Yawar: the incumbent president is likely to be a candidate for the post again.

The interim Defence Minister Hazem Al Shaalan is another prominent Arab Sunni politician likely to remain in the limelight along with Mahdi Al Hafiz, currently Minister of Planning, who is the rising political star of the Sunnis and could be their candidate for premiership.

The elections which will produce municipal councils, provincial assemblies and a national assembly are designed to give Iraq a framework within which its future is shaped.

Thus, the exercise must be regarded as the first step in a long way towards the establishment of credible and durable democratic institutions in the country.

The 275-seat assembly will act as both a legislature and a panel to draft a new constitution.

Here are its main tasks:

Meet and elect its own officials, including the Speaker and two deputies, before March 2005

Elect the three members of the presidential council one president and two vice presidents by mid-April

Elect a new prime minister and Cabinet on the recommendation of the presidential council, probably by the end of April,

Prepare the draft of Iraq's new Constitution by mid-August

Put the draft to a referendum by October 15,

Hold general parliamentary elections by December 15 (provided the constitution is approved in the referendum)

Dissolve itself to make way for the newly elected parliament by December 31. The new parliament will then appoint a new government.

These tasks are designed not only to institutionalise Iraq's democracy but also to train its new leaders in the art of political horse-trading, a welcome substitute for the Arab tradition of using violence as the main instrument of winning and retaining power.

Amir Taheri is an Iranian author of ten books on the Middle East and Islam, and a member of Benador Associates.


This is the last in a three-part series.

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