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The new election battle in Iraq

By Amir Taheri

New battle for Iraq

Iran's all-out election bid

Last Updated: 7:44 PM, October 12, 2009

Posted: 4:55 AM, October 12, 2009

THE next general election is three months away, but Iraq is already in high gear for what promises to be a hard-fought campaign over the future of the newly liberated nation. The outcome could determine the course of politics in the Middle East and the future US role in that turbulent region.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Three camps are emerging.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
The first is a bloc of 40 groups led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Known as The State of the Law, the coalition promises a modern democracy transcending ethnic and sectarian divides.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Maliki quit his Islamist party, Dawa (The Call), precisely because of its Shiite sectarian nature. His new coalition includes both Arab Sunni and ethnic Kurdish groups. Yet he hopes to still attract many Shiites -- who, after all, are the majority of the population.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
The second camp is known as &quot;the party of Iran.&quot; Its hard core consists of the remnants of the Mahdi Army (Jaish Al-Mahdi) of the maverick mullah Muqtada Sadr and splinter groups from Dawa led by former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. A third Shiite group, the Supreme Islamic Assembly of Iraq -- led by Ammar al-Hakim, a junior mullah -- provides the remaining leg of the pro-Iranian triangle.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Jaafari is emerging as Iran&apos;s candidate for prime minister -- if his bloc, known as the Iraqi National Alliance, wins control of the National Assembly (parliament). Last week, Jaafari visited Iran to be feted by &quot;Supreme Guide&quot; Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&quot;The American era is ending,&quot; Iran&apos;s official news agency quoted Jaafari as saying. &quot;We must prepare for a new era in which Islamic forces set the agenda.&quot;&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
The third camp is formed by secular Shiite groups, led by ex-Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, plus Arab Sunni parties led by Saleh Mutlak and the remnants of the Ba&apos;ath party.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
This camp enjoys support from such Arab states as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Its principal theme: With the US embarked on a strategic retreat under President Obama, Arab states must do all they can to prevent Iran from dominating Iraq and emerging as the regional &quot;superpower.&quot;&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Iraq&apos;s Kurdish community, some 20 percent of the population, is also split. Massoud Barzani&apos;s Kurdish Democratic Party has indicated it might support Maliki&apos;s bloc in a common bid to preserve Iraq&apos;s independence from Iran and Arab states. The new Change (Goran) bloc, which made spectacular gains in the last Kurdish local elections, also opposes Iranian domination.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Yet the other longtime Kurdish party -- the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by President Jalal Talabani -- argues that, with the US unwilling to provide leadership, Kurds must look to Iran as their protector against Arab nationalism. The Kurdish branch of the Hezbollah also supports the Iranian option.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Behind all this are Obama&apos;s hints that he might speed up the withdrawal of US forces before 2011, short-circuiting the Status of Forces Agreement signed by the Bush administration. The American president&apos;s obvious attitude has hurt Iraqi politicians who advocate strategic alliance with Washington.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&quot;Obama is not interested in Iraq,&quot; says analyst Ma&apos;ad Fayyad. &quot;This is because, if Iraq succeeds as the first Arab democracy, it might look as if Bush was right after all.&quot;&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Obama&apos;s tepid, not to say hostile, attitude toward Iraq&apos;s new democracy has some Iraqi politicians recasting themselves as anti-Americans.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Jaafari is claiming he lost his position as prime minister under &quot;pressure from Bush.&quot; Sadr keeps repeating that, if the Americans are &quot;running away as fast as they can,&quot; it is thanks to his Mahdi Army. Even the Kurdish parties are trying to offer an anti-American aura by reclaiming their &quot;socialist&quot; background.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Anxious not to appear as &quot;Washington&apos;s man&quot; when the US seems determined to abandon Iraq, Maliki plans to put the Status of Forces Agreement to a referendum. Since the agreement is already in effect, the exercise is little more than a political gesture -- but a majority of Iraqis are likely to vote against the agreement, thus appearing to endorse Obama&apos;s decision to speed up the US withdrawal.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&quot;If Obama wants to run away, no Iraqi can afford to appear more pro-American than the US president,&quot; says a political advisor to Maliki.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Meanwhile, Iran is throwing in everything to defeat Maliki and seize control of Iraq&apos;s government:&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
* Thousands of Iraqis, forced by Saddam Hussein to flee to Iran during his decades of rule, are pouring back into the country -- among them, &quot;professional agitators,&quot; according to sources in Baghdad.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
* Through hundreds of front companies set up since 2003, Iran is spending vast sums of money promoting its Shiite bloc.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
* Iran has reduced the water flowing from its territory into Iraqi rivers, thus provoking an unprecedented drought in provinces where Maliki hopes to do best. The clear warning: Only close ties with Tehran can save Iraq from disaster.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
* Tehran is pressuring Grand Ayatollah Ali-Muhammad Sistani to endorse the pro-Iranian bloc. Last week, the Iranian official media claimed that Sistani had warned Maliki that, if he doesn&apos;t join the pro-Iran alliance, the clergy may call for a boycott of the elections. Sistani denies having made such a threat, but the message of Iran was clear.&lt;p&gt;
	            &lt;/p&gt;&lt;br&gt;
The latest polls show 51 percent support for the Maliki-led bloc. Iraq is up for grabs -- and Washi</font>	

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New battle for Iraq

Iran&apos;s all-out election bid

Iran's all-out election bid