Napoleon applied as his first criterion for appointing someone to a high military command that he be lucky. Luck may be an equally crucial factor in the success or failure of U.S. presidents.

The Roosevelts, Coolidge, Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton were lucky, though that alone certainly does not explain their success and popularity. Wilson, Hoover, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, and Carter were unlucky, but that alone does not explain their problems and the fact that none of them left office in both good political and physical health.

At this point, President Obama is looking distinctly lucky. The sudden onset of a serious recession during the campaign helped him win, and also created the conditions for the possible enactment of his relatively radical taxing, spending, and regulatory programs. One of the key elements in his early lead over Senator Clinton for the nomination was his consistent opposition to the Iraq War and his nonchalant advocacy of simply conceding that it was a bad idea and withdrawing. Now that he is commander-in-chief, he is very responsibly building on the indisputable success of the Bush ��surge�� policy in Iraq.

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