Any surviving hopes for the sclerotic Middle East peace process have been put into the deep freeze by the inconclusive results of the Israeli election. Victory for Tzipi Livni, who headed the previous Government’s efforts to revive peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, shows that support for a two-state solution is still alive, but the results may not translate into her forming a government.
Instead, the chances are that Binyamin Netanyahu will head a right-wing bloc with Avigdor Lieberman, an extreme nationalist living on a Jewish settlement in the West Bank.
If they build a bloc of nationalist and religious parties there is little hope for progress in peace talks.
Mr Netanyahu has been coy about his vision for a peace deal but he favours limited sovereignty for the Palestinians, with Israel retaining security control of the Jordan Valley and much of the West Bank. The Palestinians would likely control their towns but not much more. Mr Netanyahu has said he would sweeten the deal by building industrial parks for the Palestinians. The Palestinian leadership is almost certain to reject this revised version of their sovereignty.
Mr Netanyahu has said that he will not honour the outgoing administration’s pledges to limit Jewish settlement growth and will not discuss the division of Jerusalem. But Israeli rights groups have said that even under the centrist Kadima-led Government, settlement growth has continued apace. One of the key questions is whether the caretaker Government of Ehud Olmert, the outgoing Prime Minister, can push through a longer-term ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. Mr Netanyahu and Mr Lieberman have threatened to smash the group. Egypt says that it is close to brokering a deal to end Hamas rocket fire, open most of the border crossings and secure the release of Gilad Schalit – an Israeli soldier captured 2½ years ago – in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. While such a deal could calm the situation and allow the reconstruction of Gaza, a prisoner exchange could have serious ramifications.
If Israel releases dozens of Hamas MPs it has been detaining, the balance within the Palestinian parliament could suddenly tip away from Fatah and force a vote on Mr Abbas’s continued rule. Among the prisoners is Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader seen as someone who could unite the Palestinian factions and pave the way for a more enduring peace deal.
Mr Barghouti was arrested in 2002 when Israel reinvaded the West Bank during the second intifada. Israeli officials said they had been exploring ways of releasing him without angering relatives of those killed or making him look like he was acting in Israel’s interests.
