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Arab minnows make waves by defying big neighors --

By Roula Khalaf

Arab minnows make waves by defying big neighbours
By Roula Khalaf
Published: April

When Egypt and Syria joined Saudi Arabia last month to propose a set of reforms to the beleaguered Arab League, they expected their ideas to be quickly adopted. Instead they faced an uproar from smaller Arab countries, which balked at the less prominent role they would be given in institutions created by a reformed League.

Two governments - Qatar and Oman - led the opposition to the Big Three's document, diluting every article it contained. "Oman and Qatar took turns in tearing it apart," says one Arab diplomat.

The dispute underlined a new trend in Arab politics: emboldened smaller countries standing up to the region's political giants.

"This [trend] started some time ago and Qatar led the way. Qatar established itself in the US with an agenda on reform and it had a vendetta against Egypt and Saudi Arabia," says Edward Walker, head of the Middle East Institute, a Washington think-tank.

"It capitalised on this to set up a counterforce with other small countries because everyone had suffered under the shadow of the big boys."

Mr Walker acknowledges the power of countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia will not be easily challenged, not least because of Riyadh's pivotal role in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

But he says the US has encouraged the new attitude of smaller countries.

"By seizing on the reform agenda the US has empowered these countries and given them courage to stand up to the bigger countries," he says.

Since the attacks of September 11 2001, the US has blamed authoritarianism and religious extremism in the Arab world for breeding terrorism.

US relations with Saudi Arabia have deteriorated and Egypt has been criticised for failing to assume a leadership role on reform. Meanwhile, Syria, more hardline than other Arab states, has been put under increasing US pressure since the collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq as Washington has demanded an end to support for radical groups and abandonment of weapons of mass destruction.

On the other hand, smaller Gulf states such as Qatar and Bahrain are often praised by the US for taking greater steps towards opening up their political systems.

Washington is establishing an office to promote reforms in Tunisia rather than Cairo, the traditional centre of Arab politics. This is despite a Tunisian record on human rights that compares unfavourably even with that of Egypt.

While moving troops out of Saudi Arabia, the US has set up a new military base in Qatar. This has given the small and maverick Gulf state an American security umbrella that, combined with the highest per capita income in the region, has allowed it greater independence. The US military has also forged closer ties with Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.

Analysts say Saudi Arabia effectively played the leadership role in the region when the Gulf was threatened by Iraq and Iran. But with the US now in Iraq and the perceived danger from Iran diminished, smaller Gulf states no longer feel they need the Saudi umbrella.

"They're all trying to score points with the US at the expense of Saudi Arabia," says Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi political analyst and adviser to one of the country's prominent princes.

Mustafa Harmarne of Jordan University's Centre for Strategic Studies says the smaller states no longer need the big Arab brother because of their ties with the US.

"What's new now is that there is no credible Arab leader who can push his weight around and pull towards him the Arab street," he says. "There is no Arab order. Some countries have independent relations with the west more than with other Arab countries, and this is what matters most."

But Saudi and Egyptian analysts caution that the shift in Arab politics should not be exaggerated. When it comes to the most important decisions - including legitimising the US troop presence in Iraq and influencing the Palestinians in the conflict with Israel - the US still has to turn to Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

"Some in the US think of a 'new' Arab world versus an 'old' Arab world, but that has to be tested. Changing the power balance means changing the ability to influence events," says Abdel-Moneim Said, head of Egypt's Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies. "To do something on Iraq or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict you need approval from Cairo and Riyadh."



    
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