Trying to Save Lebanon, Again

Nearly three years after the assassination of the former prime minister Rafik Hariri — the suspected handiwork of Syria — the struggle for Lebanon’s soul continues. Tomorrow is the deadline for Parliament to pick a new president, but the country’s parties, divided by religious and personal rivalries and stoked by Syria and Iran, are deadlocked. There are fears of renewed civil war if a compromise is not found.

At least two-thirds of Lebanon’s legislators normally must be present in Parliament for the vote. Anti-Syrian forces hold a slim majority, and pro-Syrian members are threatening not to show unless there is agreement on a candidate. Members allied with the pro-Western, anti-Syrian government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora have threatened to convene without the opposition and elect a new president by simple majority.

France, the United Nations and the Arab League, meanwhile, have been unable to persuade Lebanon’s factions to compromise despite weeks of diplomacy. With the deadline looming, the United States has hinted that if the stalemate continues it would support a move by pro-government parliamentarians to elect a president by a simple majority. That could prompt Lebanon’s current pro-Syrian president to name a rival government — a recipe for violence. France, the United States and other allies, must make it clear to all sides how much they will lose if the country devolves into chaos.

Lebanon’s problems are made far worse by a system that divides top offices among rival and distrustful Sunni, Shiite and Christian communities. Its impoverished, under-represented Shiite minority has been increasingly radicalized into the arms of Hezbollah, which has a party in Parliament and a heavily armed militia.

A good part of Hezbollah’s power and appeal are the cash and the weapons it gets from Iran via Syria. Any strategy for stabilizing Lebanon must find a way to pressure Hezbollah to put down its weapons and start playing politics by the rules. The United States and its European allies will have to begin a serious dialogue with Syria to see if it can be coaxed and pressured to rein in Hezbollah. All must make clear that Lebanon’s sovereignty will not be traded away, but also that there are economic and security advantages if Damascus helps.

President Bush’s Israeli-Palestinian peace meeting in Annapolis next week would be a good place to start delivering that message. We hope that his aides are working hard to persuade Syria to attend. Lebanon is the president’s last viable project for expanding democracy in the Middle East. We fear if something isn’t done quickly, that too will unravel.