Exit Strategies

If U.S. combat forces withdraw from Iraq in the near future, three developments would be likely to unfold. Majority Shiites would drive Sunnis out of ethnically mixed areas west to Anbar province. Southern Iraq would erupt in civil war between Shiite groups. And the Kurdish north would solidify its borders and invite a U.S. troop presence there. In short, Iraq would effectively become three separate nations.

That was the conclusion reached in recent "war games" exercises conducted for the U.S. military by retired Marine Col. Gary Anderson. "I honestly don't think it will be apocalyptic," said Anderson, who has served in Iraq and now works for a major defense contractor. But "it will be ugly."

Graphic How Not to End a War As President Bush and Congress debate a drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq, past wars offer cautionary lessons on how not to withdraw from a prolonged conflict. Special Report Washington Post coverage of the U.S. military and its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. • Faces of the Fallen » FULL REPORT Who's Blogging? Read what bloggers are saying about this article. politosphere.com Robert Gates is the best man for Rummy's job. - By Fred Kaplan - Slate Magazine Aqoul Newsroom Full List of Blogs (8 links) » Most Blogged About Articles On washingtonpost.com | On the web Save & Share Article What's This?