3 Myths About the Iran Conflict

Is there anything the West can do, short of a highly dangerous military option, to prevent Iran from going forward with its nuclear program? The answer is clearly yes.

Although a prolonged standoff with Iran over its nuclear program would pose significant problems for Western countries, including a probable rise in oil prices, the benefits of preventing a nuclear Iran would clearly outweigh the costs. We'd like to try to dispel some common myths on the subject.

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· Myth 1: Economic sanctions would hurt the West more than Iran. The premise of this argument is that any sanctions imposed on Tehran would result in a dramatic rise in oil prices, hurting the economies of Western countries and undermining public support for the sanctions.

But while Iran holds the world's second-largest reserves of oil and gas and is the fourth-largest oil producer, it is in fact a net importer of refined oil products, including gasoline. And internal consumption of oil products in Iran is growing by 5.2 percent a year, far faster than its ability to increase refining capacity. This means that the levels of imports necessary to make the Iranian economy function will only increase over time. Thus, sanctions that prevented Iran from importing, say, refined oil products, including gasoline, could bring its economy to a grinding halt. Perhaps more important, the subsequent shortages would disproportionately affect President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political base, the urban underclass and lower-middle class, as well as the military.

No doubt there would be some cost to Western countries if Iran chose to retaliate by lowering or shutting down its oil production. But Iran would be unlikely to halt oil production for long, because under sanctions, it would depend more than ever on oil revenue to maintain its grip on power: As the economic situation in Iran worsened in response to sanctions, the government would have to rely on handouts and state assistance to maintain loyalty and support from the army and the general population.