IRAQ ELECTION WINNERS: A THIRST FOR PLURALISM
by Amir Taheri
New York Post
February 15, 2005

February 15, 2005 -- MANY, in both the Middle East and the West, were prepared to do all they could to make the Iraqi elections impossible. They failed — thanks to the resolve of the Iraqi people to seize control of their destiny by joining the democratic mainstream that has transformed the global scene since the 1990s.

On Jan. 30, over 8.5 million Iraqis, two-thirds of the electorate, defied death threats to go to the polls, slip that magic piece of paper into the ballot box, dip their index finger into purple ink, and claim ownership of their country for the first time.

The election that was supposed not to happen, happened. And now it has produced the results that it was not supposed to produce.

The Arab Sunni boycott was far less solid than Saddam nostalgics had hoped — and the community, some 15 per cent of Iraq, more divided.

In the four provinces of the Sunni Triangle, average voter turnout was a meager 17 per cent — but only about half of Arab Sunnis live there, and it is not clear how many failed to vote because they wished to boycott, and how many simply feared for their lives. The turnout of the half of the Arab Sunni population that lives outside the "triangle" was larger, touching 40 per cent in such places as Baghdad and Kirkuk.

In any case, Arab Sunnis will be strongly present in the new National Assembly. They won 10 seats on their own lists, including one led by President Ghazi al-Yawar — and will also have around 40 seats secured on Shiite- and Kurdish-led lists. Thus they will have more seats than their actual demographic strength warrants.

There was no "green tide" of radical Shiism. Opponents of elections in Iraq (including Arab despots and their allies in the West) had claimed that the exercise could transform Iraq into a carbon copy of the Khomeinist mess in next-door Iran. But the most radical groups (including a Khomeinist one sponsored by Tehran) collected under 1 percent the votes, thus ending up with no seats at all.

The two main winners — the Shia-led United Iraqi Alliance list (endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani) and the United Kurdistan list — consist of broad coalitions of moderate parties and groups. (Ahmad Chalabi, a friend of Washington but the bete noire of the CIA, played a key role in forming and leading the UIA list.) And interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a close ally of the United States, secured 40 seats for his moderate Shiite-Sunni alliance, a fantastic performance for a man who was virtually unknown in Iraq just two years ago.

The first free election ever in Iraq has revealed a nation thirsty for democratic reform, pluralism and the rule of law.

The Iraqi election comes as yet another test of President Bush's doctrine that democratization in the Middle East is not only desirable but also possible. This is why many, including Arab despots and their retinue, do not want Iraq to succeed.

And yet Iraq's success is a vital necessity if the Middle East is to be brought into the international mainstream. Iraq has rejected all forms of dictatorship and opted for pluralism. But it still needs to build the necessary institutions, establish the rule of law based on consensus, and develop a new national strategy for peaceful development.

Over the next 12 months, Iraq is likely to remain a key battleground between the forces of democracy and reform on the one hand and those of reaction and terror on the other. The newly elected Iraqi leadership needs to:

* Unite.

* Open a dialogue with elements of the Arab Sunni community that have shut themselves out of the political process.

* Moderate the demands of the Kurds for autonomy.

* Temper the Shiite appetite for more power.

* Make sure that the new constitution, to be drafted and put to a referendum within the next six months, reflects the hopes and aspirations of a majority of the Iraqis.

None of that can be achieved without the continued commitment of the U.S.-led Coalition to Iraq.

Any loose talk about the withdrawal of the Coalition forces before Iraq can defend itself against domestic and foreign enemies could only harm the broader prospect of democratization in the region. The message coming from Iraq to the United States and its allies is simple: We are doing our part; you should continue doing yours.